Win-or-go-home stage

THE “real” games in the 28th FIBA Asia Men’s Basketball Championship in Changsa, Hunan province in the People’s Republic of China begin with the single-elimination stages to be held in three consecutive days beginning with today’s quarterfinal round.

Matchups in the Elite Eight of the 16-team biennial competitions are as follows: defending titlist Iran vs. South Korea (2:30 p.m.), Qatar vs. Japan (4:45 p.m.), China vs. India (7:30 p.m.) and our beloved Philippines vs. Lebanon (9:30 p.m.).

Classification games for ninth to 12th places (also with a knockout format) feature Jordan vs. Hong Kong (9:30 a.m.) and Palestine vs. Kazakhstan (11:45 a.m.).

In the semifinals on October 2, the Philippines-Lebanon winner will take on the Qatar-Japan winner and the China-India winner will tangle with the Iran-South Korea winner. All Final Four participants are assured of either making it to the 2016 Summer Olympics outright or at least qualifying for the special final Olympic qualifying tournaments next year.

The semifinal survivors clash in the finals on October 3 with the winner earning the lone automatic berth to the 12-team Olympic men’s basketball cast in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil next year. The third-place game precedes the titular duel on the same day.

The second-, third- and fourth-placers in the FIBA Asia festivities will be eligible to participate in the three special Olympic qualifying tournaments to be held July 4-10 next year. At stake there are three wildcard berths.

Note that the Philippines appears to have a clearer, if not easier, path to the FIBA Asia crown. Rookie mentor Tab Baldwin’s troops may not get to taste the Korean kimchi until the finals, if ever, and will be glad to partake again the Japanese sushi in the semifinals, if ever, having beaten Japan, 73-66, in second-round action.

Coach Baldwin’s troops need to beat Lebanon in the quarters and then, most likely, Qatar in the semis to advance to the title game.

In contrast, the Iranians, the winners in three of the past four editions of the FIBA Asia Championship, will have to defeat South Korea in the quarters (meaning one of the perceived gold-medal contenders will be out of contention that early) and then, quite surely, China in the semis (meaning another title favorite will bite the dust by the time).

If the Filipinos play their cards right, and granting naturalized player and NBA veteran Andray Blatche got a nice rest yesterday and has fully recovered from the ankle injury he sustained against Japan last Sunday and continued to be hobbled and slowed down by it against Iran and India on Monday and Tuesday, they could reach the finals for the second consecutive time, perhaps against China or Iran for a second time in the tournament.

In 2013 in Manila, our boys fell to Iran in the finals but earned a ticket to the FIBA Basketball World Cup the following year as the 6-foot-11 former Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets player made his debut with the Philippine national team.

During the second round of the tournament, the Philippines topped Group E with a 4-1 win-loss record, followed by 2-Iran (4-1), 3-Japan (3-2), 4-India (2-3), 5-Palestine (2-3) and 6-Hong Kong (0-5).

On the other hand, China paced Group F at 5-0, followed by 2-Qatar (3-2), 3-South Korea (3-2),
4-Lebanon (2-3), 5-Jordan (2-3) and 6-Kazakhstan (0-5).

Only the top four finishers in each group qualified for the quarterfinal round. Beneficiaries under the winner-over-the-rule provision for breaking deadlocks are the Philippines, which blasted Iran, 87-73; India, which downed Palestine 73-70; Qatar, which whipped South Korea, 69-63; and Lebanon, which defeated Jordan, 80-76. All four secured a higher seeding with second-round victories over their rivals.

Entering the quarterfinals, host China is the lone unblemished team in the tournament with a 6-0 record overall (including a 91-42 shellacking of fourth-place Singapore in the first-round Group C; whose result was not carried over into the second round).

The Philippines and Iran own identical 5-1 marks. Our boys were upset by Palestine, 75-73, during the opening playdate of the tournament.

The luck of the draw has gone to the Philippines so far. It’s up to Jayson Castro William, Terrence Romeo, Calvin Abueva and Blatche – the top Filipino performers so far – and their teammates to translate this advantage into actual victories.

Team Pilipinas, the ball is in your court.

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