MY heart beats for the Philippines to romp away with the upcoming FIBA Asia Men’s Basketball Championship for its first title since the 1985 edition when the country banked on Americans Jeff Moore and Dennis Still as its naturalized recruits to sweep the competitions in Ipoh, Malaysia.
But then again… The biennial tournament in Changsa, Hunan province in the People’s Republic of China that starts tomorrow is so crowded at the top and it will take a herculean task for the Filipinos to advance past the first two rounds where just one defeat in the quarterfinals, semifinals or even the finals – all of which have a single-elimination format – sends it home with a mission unaccomplished.
For the Philippines and the other 11 participants in the FIBA Asia, it’s the title that really matters as only the champion automatically punches a ticket to the 12-team men’s basketball cast in the 2006 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
If it’s any consolation, the second-placer, third-placer and fourth-placer have an opportunity to gatecrash the Carnival by gaining any of the three “wildcard” tickets that will be available in the special 18-team Olympic qualifying tournament to be held from July 4-10 next year.
However, even that special tournament will be ultra competitive as the also-rans from the FIBA Americas – Canada (with nine NBA players that saw action in the continental qualifier, including Minnesota Timberwolves forward Andrew Wiggins, the 2014-15 NBA Rookie of the Year), Mexico and Puerto Rico – and EuroBasket – France, Serbia, Greece (5th placer), Italy (6th placer) and the Czech Republic (7th placer) – are expected to dominate the field.
This is not even to say that Angola (No. 2), Tunisia (No. 3) and Senegal (No. 4) from the AfroBasket are pushovers, thus further diluting the chances of any Asian country sneaking in among the top three in the special qualifier.
For the Philippines, which lost to the Islamic Republic of Iran during the 2013 finals held in Manila, the torturous road to the FIBA Asia Championship diadem starts with a preliminary round that nonetheless should be a stroll in the park as its opponents in Group B – Palestine (Sept. 23), Hong Kong (Sept. 24) and Kuwait (Sept. 25) – are likely to offer only a token resistance.
It won’t be surprising if the Filipinos crushed all three by at least 30 points each and, along with the group’s second-placer and third-placer, advance to the second round (Group E) where they will be bracketed with the top three finishers from Group A – expectedly to be Iran, Japan and India (or Malaysia) – and matched up against them.
In the other bracket (C-D), South Korea, host China and Jordan (over Singapore) from Group C and Chinese-Taipei, Lebanon and Qatar (or Kazakhstan) are expected to advance to the second round (Group F), where China, South Korea, Chinese-Taipei and either Jordan, Lebanon or Qatar will probably make the top four in Group F and advance to the one-and-done quarterfinals with matchups that feature E1 vs. F4, F2 vs. E3, F1 vs. E4 and E2 vs. F3.
The Philippines must beat either Iran or Japan to rank No. 2 in Group E and avoid an early confrontation with either China or South Korea (most likely the top two seeds from Group F) and face instead Chinese-Taipei in the quarterfinals.
A loss to both Iran and Japan and the Filipinos will tread a dangerous path of having to meet the Chinese or Koreans in the quarters.
A quarterfinal victory (assuming it finishes No. 2 in Group E and subsequently beats Chinese-Taipei) will push Team Pilipinas to a semifinal duel with the F1 vs. E4 winner and China or South Korea looms as its likely foe.
A Group E third-place ranking and quarterfinal win against the Group F second-placer – again either China or South Korea – will mean a semifinal rematch against Iran.
Granting it reaches the finals, a collision with Iran, China or South Korea is inevitable.
Bereft of size and plagued by a shortage of big men, the Philippine national unit mentored by rookie Tab Baldwin has only four holdovers from the 2013 FIBA Asia Championship runner-up team – Jayson (Castro) William, Ranidel De Ocampo, Gabriel (Gabe) Daniel Norwood and (Jean) Marc Pingris.
The remaining members of the team: naturalized player Andray Blatche (allegedly still carrying excess poundage, he replaces Marcus Douthit for a second time – the first during the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup), veteran internationalists Asi Taulava, Sonny Thoss and Dondon Hontiveros and first-time
FIBA Asia campaigners John Christopher (JC) Intal, Terrence Romeo, Calvin Abueva and Matt Ganuelas Rosser.
The Philippines’ chances of winning the 28th FIBA Asia Championship are not exactly bright.
But can it be done? Perhaps it may happen if the luck of the draw for the games in the knockout stages swings to our side – with the help of some others (an upset here or there), of course.
Meanwhile, Spain whipped Lithuania, 80-63, to romp away with the EuroBasket title. Chicago Bulls frontliner Pau Gasol had a double-double with 25 points and 12 rebounds and wound up as the tournament’s No. 1 scorer and MVP.
Spain was the EuroBasket champion in 2009 and 2011 before losing to eventual champion France during the 2013 edition. Both Spain and Lithuania, which also placed second in the 2013 Euro games, earned automatic berths to the Rio Olympics.
In the third-place game, France crushed Serbia, 81-68. France, Serbia, fifth-placer Greece, sixth-placer Italy and seventh-placer Czech Republic qualified for the special Olympic qualifying tournament.
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